NYSED News: Board of Regents Consider New Actions to Raise NY's Graduation Rate; Use New Data to Guide Decision-Making

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE JUNE 22, 2009

For More Information Contact:
Jonathan Burman, Jane Briggs, or Tom Dunn at (518) 474-1201
Internet: http://www.nysed.gov

BOARD OF REGENTS CONSIDER NEW ACTIONS TO RAISE
NEW YORK’S GRADUATION RATE;
USE NEW DATA TO GUIDE DECISION-MAKING

The State Board of Regents today discussed a number of issues related to New York’s high school graduation rate. Among the issues discussed were the following: how students, particularly those with the lowest graduation rates, performed; whether to set new graduation rate goals and targets; whether to use a 4 and/or 5-year graduation rate; what the impact of phasing-out the local diploma will be; and how to improve the reliability of the data that districts report to the Education Department. To guide their decision-making on these issues, the Regents reviewed newly available graduation rate data.

Regents Chancellor Merryl H. Tisch said, “There is no issue more important to the Regents than raising New York’s graduation rate for all students, particularly those who have traditionally been in the gap. While there have been some modest improvements over time, we know that far too many children are failing to graduate. The Regents will work to change that. And we will work to make certain that the data reported to us by schools are accurate and reliable.”

State Education Commissioner Richard P. Mills added, “The policy questions and data are complex, but the human reality of the situation is straightforward. Everyone must graduate with a diploma that signifies college and work readiness. Ultimately, only high expectations make sense, and have traction when linked to effective practices and systems that make success possible.

To inform the Regents discussions that will ultimately lead to policy decisions, staff presented new graduation rate data. Those data, reported by school districts to the Education Department, show that statewide graduation rates are steadily increasing overall, but still remain low. Specifically, among the 2004 cohort (i.e., the group of students who began ninth grade in 2004), the percentage of students who graduated with a Regents or a local diploma in June 2008 was 70.9%; that is up from 69.3% in the previous year. By August 2008, 73.6% of the 2004 cohort had graduated.

The data also show that a fifth year of high school increases the graduation rate. Among the 2003 cohort, for example, the five-year graduation rate improved to 75.6% -- a six point improvement over that cohort’s four-year rate. A fifth year is particularly significant for black and Hispanic students. For black students who started ninth grade in 2003, almost 4,000 more students graduated in the fifth year; similarly, 3,945 more Hispanic students graduated after a fifth year.

Other significant findings from the 2004 cohort data include the following:

The gap between black and Hispanic students, as compared with white students, is narrowing. For example:
- The percentage point difference between black and white students has decreased every year, as follows: 2001 cohort (34 point difference); 2002 cohort (33 point difference); 2003 cohort (30 point difference); and 2004 cohort (28 point difference; 25 points through August).
- The percentage point difference between Hispanic and white students has decreased every year, as follows: 2001 cohort (37 point difference); 2002 cohort (35 point difference); 2003 cohort (33 point difference); and 2004 cohort (30 point difference; 27 points through August).
The graduation rate for Students with Disabilities remains low. 41.5% of the 2004 cohort graduated with a local or Regents diploma after four years. However, more are remaining in school and fewer are dropping out.
The graduation rate for English Language Learners (ELL) also remains low. 35.7% of the 2004 cohort graduated with a local or Regents diploma after four years. However, 38.8% were still enrolled and had not dropped out.
Among students who graduate, more are earning a Regents Diploma.

The newly available 2004 cohort data helped inform the Regents discussion of graduation rate issues. The discussion was presented in three broad areas.

Situation Analysis

- Comparing the graduation rates of various groups with the overall statewide rate. The Regents were presented with the following data:
- - Four-Year Graduation Rates for the 2003 and 2004 cohorts, through June:
  - - All Students, statewide
    - - 2003: 69%
      - 2004: 71%
    - Students With Disabilities
    - - 2003: 40%
      - 2004: 42%
    - English Language Learners
    - - 2003: 25%
      - 2004: 36%
    - Black Students
    - - 2003: 51%
      - 2004: 54%
    - Hispanic Students
    - - 2003: 47%
      - 2004: 52%
    - White Students
    - - 2003: 81%
      - 2004: 82%
    - Asian/Pacific Islander Students
    - - 2003: 77%
      - 2004: 78%

The impact of phasing-out the local diploma for general education students. Beginning with students who entered ninth grade in 2008, general education students will no longer have the option to receive a local diploma under current regulations. The Regents were presented with the following data:
- Percentage of students who graduated in June 2008 and received a local diploma instead of a Regents diploma:
- - All Students, statewide: 16%
  - Students With Disabilities: 50%
  - English Language Learners: 48%
  - Black Students: 33%
  - Hispanic Students: 31%
  - White Students: 10%
  - Asian/Pacific Islander Students: 9.5%

The Regents will analyze these decisions as they consider whether to continue implementing the phase-out of the local diploma.

Ensuring the reliability of the data that districts report. The Regents discussed the need for accurate and reliable data. In a recent audit of the 2002 cohort, the State Comptroller found that a number of schools had not kept adequate records of transfers. As a result, four of the twelve high schools audited reported graduation rates that were inaccurate by more than five percentage points. Staff also noted that the Department is in the midst of major advances in data collection and reporting, organizationally and technologically. These actions will foster greater accuracy and timeliness in the collection and reporting of data.

Calculating the Graduation Rate. Different states use different methods to calculate the graduation rates they report to the U.S. Department of Education for accountability purposes. Some states, including New York, use the “cohort rate,” which calculates the percent of students from an entering ninth grade cohort who graduate with a diploma (local or Regents) in four years.

Graduation rate accountability determinations about schools and districts are based upon whether the school or district has met the graduation rate goal established by the state or, alternatively, whether the school or district has met the established graduation rate target. New York’s current four-year graduation rate goal for accountability purposes is 55% and the annual target is a 1% increase for schools and districts below the goal. Schools and districts that fail to meet the goal or target for two consecutive years do not make Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) and are identified as being in need of improvement.

AYP decisions are currently based only on a school or district’s aggregate graduation rate, not the disaggregated graduation rate for individual groups of students (e.g., racial/ethnic groups, low-income students, students with disabilities, and English Language Learners). Consistent with the Regents focus to close the achievement gap for all students, the federal government has also asked the states to begin disaggregating graduation rate data for accountability purposes, no later than with the 2011-12 school year results.

Based on the 2004 cohort data, the disaggregated data show that a total of 272 high schools (of New York’s 1003) would not meet the 55% accountability graduation rate goal for at least one student group.

What we Know About the Schools with Low Graduation Rates

- The data show that the largest gaps in the graduation rate exist mainly in the large urban districts. The Regents were presented with the following data:
- - Four-Year Graduation Rates for the 2004 cohort, through June, by Need/Resource Capacity Category:
  - - All students, statewide: 71%
    - New York City: 56%
    - Large City: 50%
    - Urban-Suburban: 62%
    - Rural: 73%
    - Average Need: 80%
    - Low Need: 92%

The data also show that the large city districts issue the largest percentage of local diplomas. For the 2004 cohort, for example, 39% of students in large city school districts who graduated in four years received a local diploma rather than a Regents diploma; 28% of students from schools in New York City received a local diploma. By contrast, only 9% of students in Low Need districts received a local diploma.

The data show that strategies to address the needs of schools and students in urban districts are of particular importance in meeting the Regents goal of raising graduation rates for all. Note: the Regents Discussion Item contains detailed data on the performance of each of the Big 5 school districts as well as information about some of the initiatives the Regents and the Education Department are engaged in to improve student achievement.

Setting Graduation Goals and Targets

- The federal government has asked states to adopt new, stronger, and more inclusive graduation rate requirements. The Regents therefore have an opportunity to adopt new definitions of graduation (e.g., counting graduation rates for five or even six years instead of four years only) and to set goals and targets for all disaggregated groups of students (e.g., by race/ethnicity, income, disability, and English Language Learner status). Schools and districts would then be held accountable for improving graduation rates using these more inclusive and more rigorous rules.

Defining the Graduation Rate Cohort. How the graduation rate cohort is defined determines which students are being counted for accountability purposes. The federal government has asked every state to adopt the new federal graduation rate definition and use this definition beginning no later than with the 2011-2012 results. New York’s current definition of the four-year cohort is already very close to the proposed federal definition. The more quickly the federal definition is adopted in New York, the less time schools and districts will have to prepare for the changes. So the Regents must decide whether to begin using the new federal definition beginning with the 2009-10, 2010-11, or 2011-12 school year results.

Setting the Graduation Rate Goal and Annual Targets. As noted earlier, states must also disaggregate graduation rate data for determining AYP based on assessments administered beginning with the 2011-2012 school year results. The Regents were presented with data showing that as the graduation rate goal increases, the number of high schools that will not make AYP for various student groups will increase as well. For example, if the graduation rate goal was raised to 80%, it would result in 75 of the 102 high schools that are accountable for ELL students being identified as being in need of improvement for that student group.

Federal No Child Left Behind regulations give states considerable flexibility in how they establish graduation rate targets. So the Regents must determine how rigorous they want the graduation rate goal and annual targets to be for federal accountability purposes.

Using an Extended Year Adjusted Graduation Rate. The federal regulations also permit states to base AYP determinations in part on the performance of students who graduate in more than four years. New York already tracks and reports five and six year graduation rates; those rates, however, are not currently counted for federal accountability purposes. U.S. Education Department guidance suggests that states seeking to implement a five year graduation rate will likely be approved. If a state chooses to implement an extended year graduation rate cohort, the state must decide how that extended graduation rate will be used in combination with the four year graduation rate for making AYP determinations.

An extended graduation rate provides schools and districts with additional incentive to continue to work with students to ensure that they graduate, even if they graduate in more than four years. Use of an extended year graduation rate is an important factor for students with disabilities, many of whom need additional time to earn the course credits and pass the challenging State assessments required to graduate.

The information being presented in this release refers to what is called the “total cohort.” The total cohort consists of virtually all students who entered 9th grade in a particular year and tracks their progress through high school after 4, 5, and 6 years. A precise definition is available at www.nysed.gov.

This total cohort is now being used for school and district accountability. It replaces a different method of counting students which was started before New York State had an individual student data system. This earlier, less complete cohort did not count students who dropped out during the first two years of high school. In the past, this less complete cohort was used for school and district accountability and was reported on the School Report Card.

The Regent Commissioner’s Powerpoint presentation, additional slides, and individual school and district data are available at this address: www.nysed.gov.

Graduation Rate Data - June 22, 2009

Archived Webcast of the June 22 Meeting of the Board of Regents and Commissioner Mills Board of Regents Presentation on Graduation Rates

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